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Brightwater Packaging Watch

Packaging manufacturer · Loan + revenue share · $18.5M deployed · Last report Oct 15

Overview

What changed this month

  • Cash dropped $0.5M to $2.4M. The plan keeps it above the $1.5M minimum; the lowest point is $1.6M in mid-December.
  • Earnings are 9% below budget. The pricing reset that should fix this is three weeks late.
  • Customers are paying slower: 58 days on average, up from 54.
Ending cash across operating accounts at the last weekly close.
$2.4M
Prior $2.9M · −$0.5M
WatchWeekly · as of Nov 6
Last 12 months’ EBITDA after approved adjustments, monthly.
$6.2M
Prior $6.4M · −3.1%
WatchMonthly · as of Sep 30
Debt service coverage: cash available for debt service ÷ interest and principal due. Higher is safer.
1.31x
Prior 1.36x · −0.05x · min 1.20x
WatchMonthly · as of Sep 30
Weeks of cash at the last 4 weeks’ average burn. New, added by Your Cohort
11 wks
Prior 13 wks · −2 wks
WatchWeekly · as of Nov 6
Days sales outstanding: how many days customers take to pay on average, last 3 months. Lower is better. New, added by Your Cohort
58 d
Prior 54 d · +4 d · target 50 d
At riskMonthly · as of Sep 30
(Revenue − cost of goods) ÷ revenue, last 12 months. New, added by Your Cohort
21.4%
Prior 21.1% · +0.3 pts
On trackMonthly · as of Sep 30

Cash, next 13 weeks

Ending cash by week · updated Tuesdays
Cash, next 13 weeksBar chart of weekly ending cash. Actual $2.9M on Oct 30 and $2.4M on Nov 6; forecast $2.2M on Nov 13 to $2.5M on Jan 22. Lowest forecast week Dec 18 at $1.6M. Minimum cash $1.5M: every forecast week clears it. Two weeks of spending $1.8M: 2 of 11 forecast weeks below it. $0$1M$2M$3M$4M 2 weeks of spending $1.8MMinimum cash $1.5M Low $1.6M Oct 30Nov 13Nov 27Dec 11Dec 25Jan 8Jan 22
Cash, next 13 weeksBar chart of weekly ending cash. Actual $2.9M on Oct 30 and $2.4M on Nov 6; forecast $2.2M on Nov 13 to $2.5M on Jan 22. Lowest forecast week Dec 18 at $1.6M. Minimum cash $1.5M: every forecast week clears it. Two weeks of spending $1.8M: 2 of 11 forecast weeks below it. $0$1M$2M$3M$4M Low $1.6M Oct 30Nov 20Dec 11Jan 1Jan 22
ActualForecastCash low pointMinimum cash $1.5M2 weeks of spending $1.8M
Next week in
$4.1M
Next week out
$4.3M
Net cash flow
−$0.2M
Ending cash, Nov 13
$2.2M
Cash low point
$1.6M · Dec 18
Last week, plan vs actual
$2.6M → $2.4M
Forecast accuracy, 4 wks
96.9%
Invoices 90+ days late
$0.7M

Decisions for you

Checked against the deal documents before they reach you

Extra $0.3M for equipment repair

Needs consent

Goes over the $1.2M yearly equipment cap. Recommended: approve if they show the 60-day payback.

New $0.6M equipment lease

Not allowed

The agreement allows up to $0.5M. Suggested reply: offer $0.5M instead.

Covenants

All 4 passing · Q3 certificate due Nov 14
Net debt ÷ adjusted EBITDA, last 12 months. Lower is safer.8.6% room
Debt service coverage: cash available for debt service ÷ interest and principal due. Higher is safer.9.2% room
Equipment and other capital spending this fiscal year, against the yearly cap.25% room
Ending cash must stay at or above this amount every week.60% room

New marks a measure Your Cohort adds to Thorne’s reporting · fictional companies and figures · thresholds are placeholders · select or hover any dotted label for its definition